In the so called developed world, US and Spain are the predicted movers at a growth rate of 6.4% with the bulk of the other countries in the mid 4%’s and up. The only exceptions are Japan and Germany in the mid 3%’s.
And the big mover in the developing countries is…. India at a predicted 12.5% and China at 8.6%. India is showing a large -8% drop which explains the high recovery. Most countries range from 3% up in this group. By the way, why do they call China an “emerging economy” when they’ve got the 2nd largest economy worldwide, and Russia for example at number 11?
These numbers are good – sure we have ground to make up but as I said in the last newsletter they’re nothing like what was being projected. And interestingly here’s what the IMF said in January 2019 – The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020. So when you say the global economy will grow by 6% this year and 4.4% in 2022. Of course we have ground to make up these are good numbers. The IMF is expecting Australia’s GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2021 and NZ by 4%… not bad.
Anyway it looks good for high end commodity producers such as ourselves as life starts to take on a bit of normality.